Bruno Feunou* (Universit¨¦ de Montr¨¦al, CREST), Nour Meddahi (Imperial College London) Abstract: We model jointly the daily return and realized variance of financial
asset as a bivariate affine model. The affine approach allows us to derive
analytically the conditional distribution of future aggregate returns
at any horizon, the term structures of the VaR and the expected shortfall.
We empirically show the relevance of using the realized variance data
by comparing the results with those implied by a daily GARCH model of
Heston and Nandi (2000). We also show that our model outperforms the model
introduced in Forsberg and Bollerslev (2002).
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